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Tony Pfitzner
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Hi Steve

There is no answer to this question without testing. Googles traffic data is highly inaccurate (surprisingly – it’s their data), and is only a preliminary guide. You must test with actual traffic.

Here is what I would do:

1) Register BOTH names, so you have them reserved, but just point one at the actual website.
2) Set up an Adwords campaign using two separate adgroups with exact match keywords from the two domains
3) Set some analytics goals such as a product sale, signup or whatever is appropriate for you and possibly a time-on-site or number of pages goal.
4) Split test conversions on both Adgroups to see which gives the best return.

You will need to run this until you have significant data.

After all this, I think that having keywords in your domain name is going to become progressively less important. Giving someone first dibs on search rankings for their site, simply because they were the first to grab a keyword rich domain name is total rubbish. Google may be starting to realise this.