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  • #1222629
    bb1
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    Paul – FS Concierge, post: 269020, member: 78928 wrote:
    Moving to a personal agenda of mine, I would love to see the formation of a worldwide organistion to umbrella medical and pharmaceutical research, moving research away more and more from private firms that are profit motivated.

    Australia had something like that at one stage, it was called the CSIRO, until it was decimated by our government

    #1222630
    bb1
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    Paul – FS Concierge, post: 269014, member: 78928 wrote:
    I respectfully disagree. It is a broad-based strategy that will provide some stimulus to the economy at a time when stimulus is called for.

    Any broad based strategy will not help everyone, but it is the macro of the effect that is important.

    Have to disagree respectfully or not I am not sure. But if you listened to [USER=5318]@JamesMillar[/USER] second podcast, his key take home was to stay cashed up. Where as the stimulus is trying to get small business to go out and buy new plant and equipment, which for one involves spending any cash you have, and I suspect most small business’s wont have a cool $15K to $100K just laying around, which means taking on debt.

    Plus add to that the current government has already being pushing small business with the instant write off extensions to already buy plant and equipment for the last 6 or so years. SO in reality do they need to buy more, would they in these times of potential loss of business have the potential to take on more debt to buy plant, which will most likely sit idle for the next 12 moths till things turn around.

    Oh and then of course, most of our plant an equipment comes from overseas, where a lot of manufacturing has ground to a halt or have slowed exporting.

    PS. Can I nominate @JamesMilar as our next treasurer, he seems to make more sense then the lot in charge at the moment. Vote 1 James.

    #1222631
    Paul – FS Concierge
    Keymaster
    • Total posts: 3,146
    bb1, post: 269022, member: 53375 wrote:
    Australia had something like that at one stage, it was called the CSIRO, until it was decimated by our government
    Stripping funding from the CSIRO is a modern day tragedy in my very personal opinion. And same with University research funding which is more and more corporate provided.
    #1222632
    Paul – FS Concierge
    Keymaster
    • Total posts: 3,146
    bb1, post: 269023, member: 53375 wrote:
    Have to disagree respectfully or not I am not sure.
    PS. Can I nominate @JamesMilar as our next treasurer, he seems to make more sense then the lot in charge at the moment. Vote 1 James.
    Super respectful reply, the way I read it!

    I was mainly referring to the extra cash that small business can access.

    There will be businesses out there though that will benefit from the economic circumstance we are in and having them be able to take advantage of the concessions should be a net positive.

    #1222633
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689
    bb1, post: 269023, member: 53375 wrote:
    Have to disagree respectfully or not I am not sure. But if you listened to [USER=5318]@JamesMillar[/USER] second podcast, his key take home was to stay cashed up. Where as the stimulus is trying to get small business to go out and buy new plant and equipment, which for one involves spending any cash you have, and I suspect most small business’s wont have a cool $15K to $100K just laying around, which means taking on debt.

    Plus add to that the current government has already being pushing small business with the instant write off extensions to already buy plant and equipment for the last 6 or so years. SO in reality do they need to buy more, would they in these times of potential loss of business have the potential to take on more debt to buy plant, which will most likely sit idle for the next 12 moths till things turn around.

    Oh and then of course, most of our plant an equipment comes from overseas, where a lot of manufacturing has ground to a halt or have slowed exporting.

    PS. Can I nominate @JamesMilar as our next treasurer, he seems to make more sense then the lot in charge at the moment. Vote 1 James.

    ha. I would last 5 minutes in politics. Low tolerance for self important free loaders.

    #1222634
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689

    I think round two is about to drop. Predicting deficit of $100B hopefully a large part is funding. Essentially with all of this lock down the government will need to pay wages for all Australians for the next 3 months because businesses can’t if they are not allowed to trade. I suspect $100B would not be enough we will see.

    #1222635
    Bigprintguy
    Member
    • Total posts: 5

    My worry with this though is even if the government pumped in what is actually required that they won’t act fast enough (or be able too) and small businesses will either wait to long for the support and go out of business anyway or will lay off most/all staff. The logistics involved in doing something like this must be immense, I mean the fire effected people are still waiting to get relief if reports are to be believed and that in comparison to this is relatively small.

    #1222636
    JamesMillar
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    Bigprintguy, post: 269049, member: 101112 wrote:
    My worry with this though is even if the government pumped in what is actually required that they won’t act fast enough (or be able too) and small businesses will either wait to long for the support and go out of business anyway or will lay off most/all staff. The logistics involved in doing something like this must be immense, I mean the fire effected people are still waiting to get relief if reports are to be believed and that in comparison to this is relatively small.

    That’s why its vital that this next round of incentives and payments (will hear more within 48 hours) are cash into peoples hands immediately. Not three or four weeks ago but next week. Hard but not impossible.

    #1222637
    Bigprintguy
    Member
    • Total posts: 5
    JamesMillar, post: 269050, member: 5318 wrote:
    That’s why its vital that this next round of incentives and payments (will hear more within 48 hours) are cash into peoples hands immediately. Not three or four weeks ago but next week. Hard but not impossible.
    Do you think that whatever they come up with would be enough? Pessimistically I think they would have chosen a percentage figure of what they would be ok with if a number of businesses went bust or the amount of people that get made redundant. I just can’t see everybody coming through it.
    #1222638
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689
    Bigprintguy, post: 269051, member: 101112 wrote:
    Do you think that whatever they come up with would be enough? Pessimistically I think they would have chosen a percentage figure of what they would be ok with if a number of businesses went bust or the amount of people that get made redundant. I just can’t see everybody coming through it.

    Well back of envelope figures for you (I always like numbers to tell story)

    Australian GDP about $2.2 trillion.

    If you shut down 75% of economy for 1 month that cost is $ 137 billion per month

    If 2 to 3 months close then spool up you are talking about more than $500 billion GDP lost. Our current national debt is $550 billion so it would double within 6 months to bail out OR people will be (a) farming to grow their own food because there are not enough jobs or (b) stealing yours from your home. I don’t begrudge either as you do what you have to do to survive and provide for your family.

    Now I’m not an economist and I’m no expert in international debt management but half a trillion dollars is a big bail out.

    I am big believer in having the facts before making big decisions and I am not confident that the Federal Government fully appreciate the implications of these new measures to save lives (flatten the curve). My suggestion among friends and family that we rethink long and hard about a higher acceptable mortality rate have not been well received – which is fine if that is the majority view. I just think this will cause serious pain and lost opportunity for a generation of young people. Is it the right call?

    #1222639
    bb1
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    • Total posts: 4,485
    JamesMillar, post: 269052, member: 5318 wrote:
    My suggestion among friends and family that we rethink long and hard about a higher acceptable mortality rate have not been well received – which is fine if that is the majority view. I just think this will cause serious pain and lost opportunity for a generation of young people. Is it the right call?

    Yes a good way to think, but a typical accountants view, but if that was your family member that was in that higher mortality rate, how would you feel.

    You just lost my vote for treasurer (LOL), Nah would still give my vote, but make sure you didnt make those decisions.

    #1222640
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689
    bb1, post: 269053, member: 53375 wrote:
    Yes a good way to think, but a typical accountants view, but if that was your family member that was in that higher mortality rate, how would you feel.

    You just lost my vote for treasurer (LOL), Nah would still give my vote, but make sure you didnt make those decisions.

    Yep honesty and the politics of winning clearly don’t mix. Another reason I would be a terrible politician.

    I actually have a family member that’s 87 and probably high risk. The bigger question is does she want a generation living through 15 to 20% unemployment and wartime like poverty for a decade It may sound extreme but 3 to 6 months of a closed economy is a big deal. I have spoken with a lot of small businesses in the last few days and many are I the process of laying off staff already. No new jobs for them or their staff. How do they pay the bills? What happens to them?

    #1222641
    bb1
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    • Total posts: 4,485
    JamesMillar, post: 269054, member: 5318 wrote:
    Yep honesty and the politics of winning clearly don’t mix. Another reason I would be a terrible politician.

    I actually have a family member that’s 87 and probably high risk. The bigger question is does she want a generation living through 15 to 20% unemployment and wartime like poverty for a decade It may sound extreme but 3 to 6 months of a closed economy is a big deal. I have spoken with a lot of small businesses in the last few days and many are I the process of laying off staff already. No new jobs for them or their staff. How do they pay the bills? What happens to them?

    My mum is 95, and she lived through WW2, and they had some really bad times, but I don’t think we as a society should be taking a view that some are expandable, they survived and eventually prospered through some really bad times, I think us and our kids will survive some tough times, it may even make us better in the long run.

    #1222642
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689
    bb1, post: 269055, member: 53375 wrote:
    My mum is 95, and she lived through WW2, and they had some really bad times, but I don’t think we as a society should be taking a view that some are expandable, they survived and eventually prospered through some really bad times, I think us and our kids will survive some tough times, it may even make us better in the long run.

    My mother in law would be horrified if she thought I though she was expendable – that’s not what I mean. I like decisions to be made with all eyes open and a clear understanding of the outcomes. My point is that the extended poverty and long term socio economic impact of a 3 month economic shutdown would lead to other health issues and premature death. both options are bad. I guess least worst outcome is many years of economic downturn

    #1222643
    JamesMillar
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    • Total posts: 1,689

    Gatesy = next level 2015

    [MEDIA=youtube]6Af6b_wyiwI[/MEDIA]

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